In Ireland, if you are on government assistance, its commonly referred as the dole. Likely rooted in the vernacular that the government was Doling out the money. A Dole Whip, on the other hand is a popular sweet treat at Disney World and other places (popular most with the corporate executives who reap as high as 60% profit on the investment). The doldrums are a period of inactivity or stagnation, with the rooting of the word referring to that portion of the oceans where the wind doesn’t blow to keep the ships moving consistently.
The American agricultural community is going to face a whip of different sort. It is clear that the cost freezing, contract ignoring, and realignment of priorities of the federal government is going it impact ag in the form of less funds being doled out. On the operator level, reports of farms who advanced costs for soil conservation programs to be reimbursed by the federal government have been left out of the dole . This whipping around on priorities is going to leave a mark on the operators bottom line, even if any relief in the form of the full faith and credit of the federal government’s promises does eventually show up.
Markets to ag products are changing. For years cheap food was a policy weapon deployed globally to engender American friendly relationships. As diplomatic corps are redirected to make friends with the already powerful, regardless of how they got there or stay there, cheap corn isn’t as influential as it was with developing nations. If we don’t need cheap farm products on the global stage, we don’t need to regulate production.
No need for cheap farm products, means no need for safety net dole outs like subsidized crop insurance or ad hoc diaster payments. Those who have the water and wind in the right amount win and those who don’t lose. Any given crop year can be a bonus or a bust. Line your warchest and your larder appropriately.
No independent research available to the mases means that more operating funds will be spent on acquiring knowledge on inputs, agronomics and marketing from private sources, who may have their own pockets in mind more than the operator’s optimum return to their business. Gone will be the times of you should have looked that up, replaced with you should have paid me to tell you.
Finally, the doldrums. With CRP and other lands that have been idled through government programs, combined with new regulations proposed to reduce high fructose corn syrup usage, and creating uncertainly in food safety and biological pathogens and cutting off of traditional markets to products due to policy shifts and tariffs, a period of doldrums is likely setting in on commodity markets. Ag operations that fail to be formed correctly, respond to change in regulatory, tax and maker signals are going to be left with no wind in their sail. Those that can navigate those waters may see a bright new land of high reward.
Taxes do appear to be steady to reduced in the coming years. That line item should likely be recategorized to information acquisition and farm business planning. No body is going to do it for you and when you decide to do it for yourself, the chances of finding independent, unbiased data to make decisions on, like average costs of rents, inputs, and economic forecasts not behind a pay wall requiring a credit card to access with diminish.
To be clear, this isn’t a lament or a cry out for change, it is a preliminary assessment of where the collective has elected to steer the ship. Just make sure you aren’t relying on the dole to buy the Whip or you maybe left in the doldrums.. or worse Shanghaied.
