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A Look Ahead to 2030

According to the US National Intelligence Office, by 2030 (that’s not that far away) the world is projected to be urban, dangerous, and not dominated by American interests.  United States, European, and Japanese global incomes (currently at 56% of the world’s income) will fall to less than ½ while China, India, Russia and Brazil will grab increased income opportunities.  Where income is generated is where the power is generated as well.

Further, the report goes on to indicate that of the projected 8.3 billion people, sixty percent will live in urban areas.  By comparison, in 1950, only 30% of the world lived in urban areas. Urban areas, especially those bounded by geographical restraints like water and international boundaries, have entrenched criminal networks, insider power struggles, and sanitation and health issues. Who wants to live there? Instead the areas away from the urban areas will grow, as cheaper housing and land will bring residents and manufacturing. This will put further pressure on the areas that are still available to grow crops to produce.  In addition, all those folks are going to consume water.  Demand is expected to increase by 40%.

Ag is highly dependent upon access to water and fertilizer, which is an energy intensive resource.  How does the American Ag sector ensure access to energy to create fertilizer and not limit access to water by diverting water for urban use or regulating ourselves out of access to the water?